Migration DataEntry PF-308172 · Page 45 · Stamped OCT 15, 2026

Unauthorized Immigration Decline Deepens, Dallas Fed Data Show

New Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas data show unauthorized immigration falling faster nationwide, with large differences in the decline across local areas.

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  • The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released new data on unauthorized immigration trends.
  • The report finds the decline in unauthorized immigration is intensifying.
  • The same data show large local variations beneath the national downward trend.

Unauthorized immigration to the United States is falling faster, according to new data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The same release shows the decline is far from uniform. Local areas diverge sharply, with some places recording steep drops and others seeing far smaller changes.

What do the new data show?

The Dallas Fed report tracks unauthorized immigration trends across regions. Its central finding is simple: the overall decline has intensified. That marks a continuation, not a reversal, of an existing downward path.

For practitioners, the significance lies in the local detail. Aggregate national figures mask wide variation. The report emphasizes that large local differences sit underneath the headline number, so national-level summaries will mislead anyone working with state or metro-level caseloads.

The takeaway: the national decline is real and accelerating, but where someone sits on the map determines how strongly they feel it.

Who does this matter to?

Several audiences should watch these figures closely:

  • Policy analysts who model labor supply and population change.
  • Immigration practitioners who track enforcement and processing patterns by region.
  • Local governments and service providers planning for shifting population bases.
  • Employers in sectors that rely heavily on immigrant labor.

Each group works at a different geographic scale. The report's emphasis on local variation means national averages will not transfer cleanly to any single jurisdiction.

In short: read the local tables, not just the national total.

Why does local variation matter?

Migration flows respond to local labor markets, enforcement intensity and settlement networks. When the national trend turns downward, those local factors determine the pace of change in each place.

The Dallas Fed data make this concrete. The decline is intensifying overall, yet the report's title flags "large local variations" as a co-equal finding. Some areas are absorbing the shift much more abruptly than others.

Practitioners advising on regional trends, and analysts building forecasts from a single geography, should treat the local spread as the headline rather than the footnote.

The takeaway: a falling national number is an average of many different stories.

What should readers do next?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas publishes its research directly, and the full dataset and methodology sit with the original release. Anyone using these figures for analysis or planning should consult the Dallas Fed publication for the underlying numbers and geographic detail.

This article summarizes the report's headline findings. It does not provide legal advice on any individual case.

via GN Migration Statistics (Source)

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Priya Raman

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Market editor covering people, launches and day-to-day practice in Immigration and mobility policy worldwide at Passport File.

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